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Deepwater
Horizon; als je de film bekijkt zie je dat diverse apparatuur niet
functioneerde. Die informatie werd genegeerd, de rest is geschiedenis.
Landtanks op de
Cilacap raffinaderij, Indonesië stonden deze week in brand. Ik heb daar gewerkt
en begrijp dat een tekort aan informatie door slecht onderhoud de oorzaak kan
zijn geweest.
De
informatietheorie en de cybernetica bewijzen dat informatie fysisch is. Bits van
informatie zijn de fundamentele bouwstenen van de werkelijkheid. Inzicht in
deze verbazingwekkende wetenschappen is van cruciaal belang voor de levensduur,
de continuïteit, de veiligheid en de duurzaamheid van tankopslag- en
raffinageactiviteiten.
Opslagterminals
en raffinaderijen die er niet in slagen informatieprocessen en interne
controlesystemen effectief te implementeren, zullen waarschijnlijk op een
bepaald moment met een informatietekort te maken krijgen, wat zal leiden tot
slechtere prestaties. Begrijpen hoe een tekort aan informatie leidt tot
entropie of wanorde is van cruciaal belang als u een effectief en veilig
bedrijf wilt runnen.
Wij passen 3
universele wetten van de fysica en de cybernetica toe;
a. Informatie
blijft behouden en kan niet worden gescheiden of gewist uit onze fysieke
werkelijkheid.
b. Informatie
tekort (tekort) ≙ Entropie (wanorde) ( ≙ per
definitie).
c. De Wet van Vereiste Variëteit
Terminal Managers
en Supervisors zijn zich vaak niet bewust en proberen de 3 wetten van de fysica
te breken die niet gebroken kunnen worden zonder verhoogd risico in de vorm van
entropie (wanorde). Terminal management en operaties zijn dynamisch en hebben
informatie feedback nodig in real time om gestuurd en maximaal gecontroleerd te
worden. Dit kan niet worden geregeld of geautomatiseerd vanwege de fysica van
onzekerheid en de realiteit van leven en werken in een niet-lineair universum,
maar kan wel worden "gestuurd" door informatiefeedback
Wij hebben een
systeem voor vroegtijdige waarschuwing ontworpen dat het potentiële
informatietekort meet om de kwetsbaarheid te voorspellen. Wat wij aanbieden is
toegang tot de kwantiteit en kwaliteit van informatie in organisaties om het
potentiële niveau van blootstelling aan risico's met wetenschappelijke methode
te verifiëren.
Onderzoeksresultaten:
Wij hebben deze waarschuwingsmethodologie wereldwijd met groot succes getest.
Een onderzoek bij 100 tankopslagterminals heeft bevestigd dat er een leemte
bestond omdat 10 fundamentele technische en operationele vragen niet afdoende
konden worden beantwoord.
Terminal
Managers, Supervisors en personeel kunnen worden geïnstrueerd en opgeleid hoe
zij kunnen werken met deze systemische aanpak door middel van informatietheorie
om mogelijke gaten in het leerproces op te sporen door toepassing van de wet
van de Requisite Variety a.k.a. Ashby's Law: Als volgt:
- Een situatie
kan alleen worden beheerst als de variëteit van de controleur overeenkomt met
de variëteit van de te beheersen situatie. (Verscheidenheid is informatie).
- Een
opslagterminal genereert een enorme variëteit en probeert die op zijn eigen
manier te beheersen door middel van controlelijsten, voorschriften en wetten.
- Als de
variëteit niet wordt afgestemd, zullen systemen uit de hand lopen (entropie).
- Het is
onmogelijk om elke variabele te beheersen, dus de meeste variëteit wordt
geabsorbeerd door relaties met andere systemen.
- Dit betekent
dat bij risicobeheersing alleen voldoende variëteit, d.w.z. informatie in een
systeem, risico's kan absorberen of beheersen die voortkomen uit variëteit van
buitenaf.
- Door gebruik te
maken van terugkoppeling wordt deze informatie in het systeem gebracht, zodat
het systeem zich voortdurend kan aanpassen en kan leren.
- Het is
onmogelijk alle risico's te beheersen aangezien systemen fluctueren door
informatie van een voortdurend veranderende variëteit in een niet-lineaire
omgeving. Informatie vermindert de
onzekerheid.
- Menselijke
variëteit, omgevingsvariëteit, sociale variëteit, regelgevingsvariëteit
veranderen voortdurend en kunnen dus alleen worden beheerst door het gebruik
van real-time feedback (informatie).
- Dit betekent
dat de mensen met de gecombineerde kennis, ervaring, deskundigheid, invloed,
apparatuur, hulpmiddelen, enz. om dit te doen, gebruik moeten maken van alle
relevante informatie als dempers, om variëteit te dempen en
variëteitgeneratoren om variëteit op te bouwen.
- Verbetering van
gezondheid en veiligheid wordt gecreëerd door variëteit toe te voegen in de
vorm van PBM's, persoonlijke beschermingsmiddelen, gasdetectoren, enzovoort.
- Ethiek en MVO
zijn vereisten die werken als informatiefeedbacklussen en zijn risicodempers.
Onze wereldwijde
opleidingservaring en de feedback van klanten geven ons een goed inzicht in het
risico van een informatietekort dat leidt tot lacunes in de kennis, waardoor de
terminals kwetsbaar worden.
Ik realiseer me
dat dit misschien verbijsterend is, maar het onderzoek om dit te staven is te
vinden op onze website www.sustenance4all.com . Is dit de volgende stap in de
optimalisering van de terminalprestaties? We weten dat het zo is. De potentiële
toepassingen van dit systeem voor vroegtijdige waarschuwing zijn grensloos :
operationele uitmuntendheid, HSEQ-controle en duurzaamheid, winstgevendheid en
vertrouwen zijn afhankelijk van de kwaliteit en kwantiteit van de informatie.
Het besturen van levende systemen (de terminal) kan van de natuur worden
afgekeken. Eenvoudig! Maar eerst moeten de mensen begrijpen en worden geleerd
hoe de natuur en de fysica ons beschermen.
When I visit a terminal’s control room I often observe that
there is a whiteboard on the wall where, for example, information about needed
repairs such as faulty valves, the phone on jetty 5 doesn’t work, rain water of
floating roof tanks due to blocked roof drains or equipment out of operation,
etcetera are recorded.
Deepwater Horizon; when you watch the movie you’ll notice
that various equipment was not functioning. That information was ignored, the
rest is history.
Shore tanks at the Cilacap Refinery, Indonesia were on fire
this week. I worked there and understand that information deficit due to poor
maintenance could have been the cause.
Information theory and cybernetics prove that information is
physical. Bits of information are the fundamental building blocks of reality.
Understanding what can be done by these amazing sciences is crucial for the
longevity, continuity safety and sustainability of tank storage and refining
operations.
Marine Storage Terminals and Refineries that fail to
effectively implement information process and internal control systems are
likely to face an information deficit at some stage resulting in degraded
performance. Understanding how information deficits result in entropy or
disorder is critical if you want to operate an effective and safe business.
We apply 3 universal laws of physics and cybernetics;
a. Information is preserved and can't be divorced nor erased
from our physical reality.
b. Information Deficit (shortage) ≙ Entropy
(disorder) ( ≙ per
definition).
c. The Law of
Requisite Variety
Terminal Managers and Supervisors are often not aware and
try to break the 3 laws of physics which can't be broken without increased risk
in the form of entropy (disorder). Terminal management and operations are
dynamic and need information feedback in real time to be steered and maximally
controlled. This can't be regulated or automated because of the physics of
uncertainty and the reality of living and working in non linear universe, but
can be ‘steered’ by information feedback
We designed an early warning system which
measures potential information deficit (shortage) to predict vulnerability.
What we offer to do is to access the quantity and quality of information
in organisations to verify the potential
level of exposure to risk by scientific method.
Research Results: We have tested this warning methodology
worldwide with great success. A survey of 100 Marine Storage Terminals
confirmed that a learning gap exists because 10 basic technical and operational
questions could not be answered adequately.
Terminal Managers, Supervisors and staff can be instructed
and trained how they can work with this systemic approach by information theory
to detect possible learning gaps by applying the Law of Requisite Variety
a.k.a. Ashby’s Law: As follows:
• A
situation can only be controlled if the variety of the controller matches the
variety of the situation to be controlled. (Variety being information).
• A storage
terminal generates tremendous variety and tries to control it in its own way
through checklists, regulations and laws.
• If variety
is not matched, systems will spin out of control (entropy).
• It is
impossible to control for every variable so most variety is absorbed through
relationships with other systems.
• It means
that in Risk Management, only enough variety, i.e. information in a system can
absorb, or control risks originating from outside variety.
• By using
feedback, this information is fed into the system to allow the system to adjust
and learn constantly.
• It is
impossible to control all risks as systems fluctuate by information from
constant changing variety in a non linear environment. Information reduces uncertainty.
• Human
variety, environmental variety, social variety, regulatory variety change all
the time thus can only be governed by the use of real time feedback
(information).
• This means
to have the people with the combined knowledge, experience, expertise,
influence, equipment, tools, etc. to do so, using all relevant information as
attenuators, to damp variety and variety generators to build variety.
• Health and
Safety improvement is created by adding variety in the form of PPE, Personal
Protective Equipment, Gas detectors and so on.
• Ethics and
CSR are requisites that work as information feedback loops and are risk
attenuators.
Our world-wide training experience and feedback from
customers gives us a great insight about the risk of information deficit resulting in knowledge
gaps, which made the terminals vulnerable.
I realise this may be mind-boggling, but the research to
back this up can be found on our website www.sustenance4all.com . Is this the
next step of terminal performance optimisation? We know it is. The potential
applications of this early warning system are endless: operational excellence,
HSEQ control and sustainability,
profitability and trust depend on the quality and quantity of information. Controlling
living systems (the terminal) can be copied from nature. Easy! But first people
must understand and thus can be taught how nature and physics protect us.
A few days ago a gasoline truck collided with another truck in the city streets of Freetown in Sierra Leone. This is what CNN wrote: 'The explosion occurred after two vehicles collided on the highway while the fuel tanker was about to enter a nearby filling station to discharge its fuel, the NDMA said in a statement posted to Facebook on Saturday afternoon. Footage and eyewitnesses intimated that while the collision took place, both drivers came out of their vehicles and warned community residents to stay off the scene while trying to address a leakage emanating from the collision," the statement said. It added that while that was happening, "some community members rushed to the scene and took advantage of the leakage to scoop fuel and store it in nearby makeshift structures."
Because I happened to train a group of Freetown Petroleum Storage
Terminal operators and loading masters last week, I wanted to express my condolences to those families who lost loved ones. I am writing this
short blog on an assumed and probable analysis of this accident, because we need to ask this
question: ‘seek knowledge of causes’. Because I have lived and worked in Africa several years, I can only conclude that 2nd cause is unawareness of the hazardous
properties of gasoline, but that the principal first cause is poverty. I can only
imagine that when gasoline is leaking out of a truck, right in front of your
home, you may think; ‘Wah, today we can fill our tanks for free; so let’s get
jerrycans!’
I can imagine a growing crowd thinking the very same, all rushing to
the trucks to get their share of the loot, not understanding, because no one
informed them, that the ignition temperature of gasoline vapour is about between
250 and 280 degrees Celsius and that the breaks temperature of trucks can reach
500 degrees Celsius. It can be assumed that the heat generated by the explosion
i.e. fireball exceeded 8000 degrees Celsius. Perhaps someone lit a cigarette,
or wore cheap static electric clothes, or messed with the wrenched steel, no
one knows. Fact is that information about hazardous compounds is not
shared with the general public, which I believe is the responsibility of all us
working in the oil and gas sector. So, my call on you; let’s create a online information and learning
platform to prevent such devastating accidents from happening in the future in countries less fortunate? Please sponsor education and awareness training programs thru our website www.tankterminaltraining.com?
A crippling ransomware attack on one of the
largest fuel distribution networks in the US has brought into sharp focus the
cyber threats facing infrastructure of national importance. The taking of the
Colonial Pipeline brought the authorities’ worst fears to life. The ransomware
attack disabled the 5,500-mile network, causing fuel shortages in the
south-eastern states of the US and prompting the Biden administration to declare
a state of emergency. Although the Colonial Pipeline Company’s CEO, Joseph
Blount, controversially paid the $4.4m (£3.2m) ransom, the network was out of
action for a week.
Let’s talk about automation. We can observe
that more ‘crucial systems of strategic importance’ in our industry such as
marine storage terminals, refineries, chemical production and distribution
sectors are being maximally automated. This increases the risk of
cyber-attacks. Therefore, our course on Cyberethics is valuable for those who
are perhaps not fully aware of human actions in Artificial Intelligence,
Robots, Algorithms, Cyber Crime & Security.
Learning about how those technologies
impact our business and lives, individually and globally, is essential for all
those managing and operating our local and global energy and transport
infrastructure. What are the risks we need to be vigilant about? It implies
both many positive impacts and outputs from new technologies but also specific
and global risks that we need to anticipate. Not all automation is moral and
ethical. Decision making based on the artificially produced conclusions needs
human contemplation, because inevitably dilemmas will occur.
The cyberspace permeates all dimensions of
our contemporary life. It influences the way we travel, the way we remain in
connection with others, communicate and harvest information, and ultimately how
we organise and run our business. Who are we as humans amidst the cyberspace?
Our online course addresses the salient
ethical questions in relation to security, technologies and artificial
intelligence, freedom and responsible citizenship in economics and day-to-day
business. The units include reading and study material of high actuality.
Participants will benefit from full and free access to the Globethics.net
online library with a plethora of publications in several collection areas of
applied ethics. The course is based on the publication Cyber Ethics 4.0:
Serving Humanity with Values written by Christoph Stückelberger and Pavan
Duggal, and will be lectured by two high profiled and experienced course
instructors. It will help our participants to:
• Recognise the
main ethical aspects in cyber environment
• Apply ethics,
core values to all decisions that are made within cyber space
• Analyse cyber space
management approaches and models from the ethical perspective
• Create new
principles of behaviour in cyber space that meet global ethical principles and rules.
Our industries are ‘complex’ systems of
business. Automating them may be attractive, because many believe that if an
algorithm is handling things, no human error can be expected. However, it is
wise to understand that human beings write code and AI copies human behaviour.
AI can’t be programmed to self-reflect and does not automatically ask this
simple question: is it right or wrong? Without cyber ethics our industry
remains vulnerable.
Those interested in learning more about
this training course should contact Arend van Campen, founder of
TankTerminalTraining, at arendvc@tankterminaltraining.com. More information on
the company’s activities can be found at www.tankterminaltraining.com.
My company is not the only one that is struggling to stay afloat in a business atmosphere I can no longer understand.
This is the latest in a series of articles by Arend van Campen, founder of TankTerminalTraining. More information on the company’s activities can be found at www.tankterminaltraining.com. Those interested in responding personally can contact him directly at arendvc@tankterminaltraining.com.
A moment of
reflection when I look back and wonder what happened to our industry, our
society, and our world last year. I wrote earlier that ‘business as usual’
won’t be likely nor possible any longer, but that a new, sustainable method is
needed if we’d like to preserve our yields and social cohesion.
Venture capitalism is not that method. When Uber or Amazon grow more,
most of our shops and businesses in our town centres will be closed. Hotels
will suffer and professional taxi drivers will be left standing on the side of
the road while a freelance Uber driver picks up the fare for half the price. How
many people can we employ if hundreds of thousands of jobs can presently only
be done by the cheapest laborers coming from Southeast Asia, Central America,
and India? Shipowners profit from lower wages, but that profit can’t be
sustainable unless ever more costs are cut. Several luxury cruise liners won’t
survive the economic lockdowns taken by scared politicians who overlook
proportionality and bring actual harm to the majority of their citizens.
But what about our oil, chemical transport, and the storage sector? How
can we survive lower demand, less travel, less consumption because the average
family will not be able to support any luxury for some time to come? A
re-design is needed.
I know I may repeat myself once more. I foresee a need for
communication, for cooperation, for conversation between all players in our
industry and with those that are interdependent such as subcontractors, service
and supply companies. This can be done in 2021. HCB will invite you to an
online information sharing platform. With this collected information, we can
then create a feedback loop map by which to predict the future for the sector.
Your input will be valuable as a risk management tool based on Ashby’s
Law of Requisite Variety. Thus, the needed variety to understand the risks and
mitigate them are awareness, knowledge, information, capabilities, capacities
and so-called attenuators and amplifiers. The complete, but flexible requisite
variety – i.e. information by which to minimise risk – can be used to predict
what will be happening on the short and long term. The technology and science
to do this are available.
The time of mechanistic, empirical determinism is over. The world has
become too complex (wicked) to be solved by outdated methods that have caused
them. A new set of instruments are here. They are obtainable, but only for
those entrepreneurs, CEOs and managers that are not afraid of change. Asking
governments to bail them out, to subsidise green deals, or ask banks for a loan
will not be focusing on ‘capability building’ but makes the industry dependent
on politically ulterior motivation and unscrupulous banksters which increases
risks.
TTT worked out how to implement these exciting new methods to achieve goals
and reach destinations for any organisation so they can stabilise and stay
sustainable, not just in the context of nature, but as self-organising living
systems ensuring continuity. Perhaps you will read this and ask how? I wish you
all a Happy New Year and a creative 2021.
This is the latest
in a series of articles by Arend van Campen, founder of TankTerminalTraining.
More information on the company’s activities can be found at www.tankterminaltraining.com. Those interested
in responding personally can contact him directly at
arendvc@tankterminaltraining.com.
TankTerminalTraining perforned this test on behalf of our industries which I hope will convince you and team about the significance of Van...