Did you read ISGOTT or SIGTTO? A risk analysis for Storage Terminals by VanCampen's Law

Using *VanCampen’s general law of functionality, we can analyze whether marine oil, gas, and chemical storage terminals can operate optimally if critical guidelines like **ISGOTT 6* (International Safety Guide for Oil Tankers and Terminals) or *SIGTTO* (Society of International Gas Tanker and Terminal Operators) are not followed. Here’s the breakdown:

### *Variable Definitions in Context*  

- *Mass (m):* The physical infrastructure (storage tanks, pipelines, valves) and volume of hazardous materials (oil, gas, chemicals).  

- *Information (i):* The knowledge and application of safety protocols, operational guidelines (ISGOTT/SIGTTO), maintenance procedures, and risk assessments.  

- *Reality (r):* The actual operational environment, including risks (leaks, explosions, corrosion), regulatory requirements, and environmental/economic consequences of failure.  

### *Analysis Using the Law*  

#### *1. Probability Dysfunctional (ΔS > 0):*  

*Condition:* \((m - i) > r\)  

*Scenario:*  

- If *guidelines are ignored* (↓\(i\)), terminals rely on physical infrastructure (\(m\)) alone, without proper safety practices or procedural knowledge.  

- The *gap* between the volume of hazardous materials (\(m\)) and lack of safety information (\(i\)) exceeds the system’s ability to manage reality (\(r\)), leading to *entropy* (disorder).  

*Consequences:*  

- *Operational failures:* Leaks, explosions, or corrosion due to improper handling (e.g., incompatible chemical storage, poor maintenance).  

- *Collateral damage:* Energy (resources, safety margins) is dissipated into chaos (environmental disasters, financial losses, human casualties).  

- *Regulatory breaches:* Non-compliance with safety standards exposes terminals to legal penalties and reputational harm.  

*Example:*  

A terminal ignores ISGOTT guidelines for inert gas systems (\(i\)), leading to a buildup of flammable vapors (\(m\)) that exceeds safe thresholds (\(r\)). This imbalance \((m - i) > r\) results in an explosion (ΔS > 0).  

#### *2. Probability Functional (J > 0):*  

*Condition:* \((m + i) \leq r\)  

*Scenario:*  

- When *guidelines are followed* (↑\(i\)), terminals combine robust infrastructure (\(m\)) with procedural knowledge (\(i\)) to align with operational reality (\(r\)).  

- *Negentropy* (order) emerges as risks are minimized through systematic compliance.  

*Consequences:*  

- *Optimal performance:* Safe storage, efficient maintenance, and compliance with regulations.  

- *Energy conservation:* Resources (time, money, safety) are preserved through preventive measures.  

- *Resilience:* Systems adapt to stressors (e.g., temperature fluctuations, pressure changes) using guideline-based protocols.  

*Example:*  

A terminal adheres to SIGTTO’s recommendations for LNG storage (\(i\)), ensuring pressure relief systems (\(m\)) are calibrated to handle real-world operational limits (\(r\)). This equilibrium \((m + i) \leq r\) prevents accidents and maintains efficiency (J > 0).  

### *Key Implications for Terminal Operations*  

1. *Ignoring Guidelines = Reduced \(i\):*  

   - Without ISGOTT/SIGTTO, terminals lack critical \(i\) (e.g., gas detection protocols, emergency shutdown procedures). This forces reliance on \(m\) (physical systems) alone, which cannot dynamically respond to risks (\(r\)), accelerating entropy (ΔS > 0).  

2. *Reality (\(r\)) as a Hard Constraint:*  

   - Operational reality (\(r\)) includes physical laws (e.g., flammability limits) and regulatory demands. If \(m + i\) exceeds \(r\) (e.g., overfilling tanks without safety checks), failures are inevitable.  

3. *Collateral Damage from Entropy:*  

   - Energy dissipation (ΔS > 0) manifests as cleanup costs, litigation, or environmental harm (e.g., oil spills damaging ecosystems).  

### *Conclusion*  

Under *VanCampen’s law, marine storage terminals **cannot perform optimally* if ISGOTT/SIGTTO guidelines are disregarded. Ignoring \(i\) (safety knowledge) creates a dysfunctional system where mass (\(m\)) dominates reality (\(r\)), leading to disorder (ΔS > 0). Conversely, integrating guidelines (\(i\)) with infrastructure (\(m\)) ensures alignment with operational reality (\(r\)), fostering negentropy (J > 0) and minimizing risks.  

*Policy Takeaway:*  

- *Mandate adherence to ISGOTT/SIGTTO* (↑\(i\)) through training and audits.  

- *Regularly update infrastructure* (\(m\)) to reflect evolving guidelines and risks (\(r\)).  

- *Simulate reality* (e.g., drills, risk assessments) to test the equilibrium \((m + i) \leq r\).  

Failure to read and apply these guidelines is equivalent to removing the "brain" (\(i\)) from the system, leaving only its "body" (\(m\)) to collide catastrophically with reality (\(r\)).