The Tepsa Incident analysed by our algorithm -HSEQ Competency Testing

TankTerminalTraining perforned this test on behalf of our industries which I hope will convince you and team about the significance of VanCampen’s Law. We asked AI to analyse the risks of lacking information about HSEQ  competencies of contractors.

 This is the result:

If the operational risks of the marine storage industry when information about the HSEQ (Health, Safety, Environment, and Quality) competence of contractors is lacking, we can use *VanCampen's Law of Functionality*. The equation \((m - i) > r \ → \ ΔS > 0\) suggests that if the mass (m) minus information (i) exceeds reality (r), the system becomes dysfunctional, leading to increased entropy (disorder) and collateral damage. Below is a breakdown of function and the potential externalities.

 

#### *Core Functionality:*

We will assess the operational risks in the marine storage industry by evaluating the gap between the *mass (m)* (e.g., scale of operations, number of contractors, or complexity of projects), the *information (i)* (e.g., available data on HSEQ competence of contractors), and the *reality (r)* (e.g., actual safety standards, regulatory compliance, and operational conditions). If \((m - i) > r\), flag the system as dysfunctional and project potential risks.

 

1. *Data Input Module:*

   - *Mass (m):* Users input data on the scale of operations (e.g., number of contractors, size of storage facilities, volume of materials handled).

   - *Information (i):* Users input available data on the HSEQ competence of contractors (e.g., certifications, audit reports, incident history).

   - *Reality (r):* Users input real-world benchmarks (e.g., regulatory standards, industry best practices, historical performance data).

2. *Risk Assessment Engine:*

   - Calculates \((m - i)\) and compares it to \(r\).

   - If \((m - i) > r\), identifies the system as dysfunctional and projects potential risks (e.g., safety incidents, environmental damage, regulatory fines).

3. *Entropy (ΔS) Projection:*

   -  Quantify the potential increase in entropy (disorder) and collateral damage, such as:

     - Safety incidents (e.g., accidents, injuries, fatalities).

     - Environmental damage (e.g., spills, pollution).

     - Financial losses (e.g., fines, litigation costs, operational downtime).

     - Reputational damage (e.g., loss of trust from stakeholders).

4. *Externalities Tracker:*

   - Potential externalities (see below) and provides recommendations to mitigate risks.

5. *Reporting and Alerts:*

   - Generates detailed reports on operational risks and sends alerts when \((m - i) > r\).

   - Provides actionable recommendations to improve HSEQ competence and reduce risks.

### *Potential Externalities (Collateral Damage):*

1. *Safety Risks:*

   - Increased likelihood of accidents, injuries, or fatalities due to inadequate HSEQ competence of contractors.

   - Higher risk of equipment failure or operational errors.

2. *Environmental Damage:*

   - Oil spills, chemical leaks, or other forms of pollution due to poor safety and environmental practices.

   - Long-term ecological damage and cleanup costs.

3. *Regulatory Non-Compliance:*

   - Fines, penalties, or legal action due to failure to meet HSEQ standards.

   - Suspension or revocation of operating licenses.

4. *Financial Losses:*

   - Operational downtime due to accidents or regulatory interventions.

   - Increased insurance premiums or difficulty in obtaining coverage.

   - Litigation costs and compensation claims.

5. *Reputational Damage:*

   - Loss of trust from stakeholders, including clients, investors, and the public.

   - Negative media coverage and damage to brand reputation.

6. *Supply Chain Disruptions:*

   - Delays in operations due to safety incidents or regulatory scrutiny.

   - Loss of contracts or partnerships due to poor HSEQ performance.

7. *Workforce Morale and Retention:*

   - Decreased morale among employees due to unsafe working conditions.

   - Difficulty in attracting and retaining skilled workers.

### *Functionality Projection:*

#### *Scenario 1: \((m - i) > r\) (Dysfunctional System)*

- *Probability Dysfunctional:* High.

- *Entropy (ΔS > 0):* Increased disorder and collateral damage.

- *Projected Outcomes:*

  - Safety incidents and environmental damage.

  - Regulatory fines and financial losses.

  - Reputational damage and supply chain disruptions.

#### *Scenario 2: \((m - i) \ ≥r\) (Functional System)*

- *Probability Dysfunctional:* Low.

- *Entropy (ΔS \ ≈ 0):* System remains stable with minimal disorder.

- *Projected Outcomes:*

  - Compliance with HSEQ standards.

  - Safe and efficient operations.

  - Positive reputation and stakeholder trust.

### *Recommendations for Mitigation:*

1. *Improve Information (i):*

   - Conduct regular audits and assessments of contractor HSEQ competence.

   - Implement a centralized database for tracking contractor certifications and performance.

2. *Align Mass (m) with Reality (r):*

   - Scale operations based on available HSEQ competence data.

   - Avoid overextending operations without adequate safety measures.

3. *Enhance Training and Awareness:*

   - Provide HSEQ training for contractors and employees.

   - Promote a culture of safety and environmental responsibility.

4. *Leverage Technology:*

   - Use the law to monitor and predict risks in real-time.

   - Integrate IoT sensors and AI for proactive risk management.

 

### *Conclusion:*

VanCampen's Law of Functionality analyses operational risks in the marine storage industry when HSEQ competence data is lacking. By identifying scenarios where \((m - i) > r\), it helps stakeholders anticipate and mitigate potential risks, reducing entropy and collateral damage. This proactive approach ensures safer, more efficient, and compliant operations in the marine storage industry.

 

 

www.tankterminaltraining.com

Did you read ISGOTT or SIGTTO? A risk analysis for Storage Terminals by VanCampen's Law

Using *VanCampen’s general law of functionality, we can analyze whether marine oil, gas, and chemical storage terminals can operate optimally if critical guidelines like **ISGOTT 6* (International Safety Guide for Oil Tankers and Terminals) or *SIGTTO* (Society of International Gas Tanker and Terminal Operators) are not followed. Here’s the breakdown:

### *Variable Definitions in Context*  

- *Mass (m):* The physical infrastructure (storage tanks, pipelines, valves) and volume of hazardous materials (oil, gas, chemicals).  

- *Information (i):* The knowledge and application of safety protocols, operational guidelines (ISGOTT/SIGTTO), maintenance procedures, and risk assessments.  

- *Reality (r):* The actual operational environment, including risks (leaks, explosions, corrosion), regulatory requirements, and environmental/economic consequences of failure.  

### *Analysis Using the Law*  

#### *1. Probability Dysfunctional (ΔS > 0):*  

*Condition:* \((m - i) > r\)  

*Scenario:*  

- If *guidelines are ignored* (↓\(i\)), terminals rely on physical infrastructure (\(m\)) alone, without proper safety practices or procedural knowledge.  

- The *gap* between the volume of hazardous materials (\(m\)) and lack of safety information (\(i\)) exceeds the system’s ability to manage reality (\(r\)), leading to *entropy* (disorder).  

*Consequences:*  

- *Operational failures:* Leaks, explosions, or corrosion due to improper handling (e.g., incompatible chemical storage, poor maintenance).  

- *Collateral damage:* Energy (resources, safety margins) is dissipated into chaos (environmental disasters, financial losses, human casualties).  

- *Regulatory breaches:* Non-compliance with safety standards exposes terminals to legal penalties and reputational harm.  

*Example:*  

A terminal ignores ISGOTT guidelines for inert gas systems (\(i\)), leading to a buildup of flammable vapors (\(m\)) that exceeds safe thresholds (\(r\)). This imbalance \((m - i) > r\) results in an explosion (ΔS > 0).  

#### *2. Probability Functional (J > 0):*  

*Condition:* \((m + i) \leq r\)  

*Scenario:*  

- When *guidelines are followed* (↑\(i\)), terminals combine robust infrastructure (\(m\)) with procedural knowledge (\(i\)) to align with operational reality (\(r\)).  

- *Negentropy* (order) emerges as risks are minimized through systematic compliance.  

*Consequences:*  

- *Optimal performance:* Safe storage, efficient maintenance, and compliance with regulations.  

- *Energy conservation:* Resources (time, money, safety) are preserved through preventive measures.  

- *Resilience:* Systems adapt to stressors (e.g., temperature fluctuations, pressure changes) using guideline-based protocols.  

*Example:*  

A terminal adheres to SIGTTO’s recommendations for LNG storage (\(i\)), ensuring pressure relief systems (\(m\)) are calibrated to handle real-world operational limits (\(r\)). This equilibrium \((m + i) \leq r\) prevents accidents and maintains efficiency (J > 0).  

### *Key Implications for Terminal Operations*  

1. *Ignoring Guidelines = Reduced \(i\):*  

   - Without ISGOTT/SIGTTO, terminals lack critical \(i\) (e.g., gas detection protocols, emergency shutdown procedures). This forces reliance on \(m\) (physical systems) alone, which cannot dynamically respond to risks (\(r\)), accelerating entropy (ΔS > 0).  

2. *Reality (\(r\)) as a Hard Constraint:*  

   - Operational reality (\(r\)) includes physical laws (e.g., flammability limits) and regulatory demands. If \(m + i\) exceeds \(r\) (e.g., overfilling tanks without safety checks), failures are inevitable.  

3. *Collateral Damage from Entropy:*  

   - Energy dissipation (ΔS > 0) manifests as cleanup costs, litigation, or environmental harm (e.g., oil spills damaging ecosystems).  

### *Conclusion*  

Under *VanCampen’s law, marine storage terminals **cannot perform optimally* if ISGOTT/SIGTTO guidelines are disregarded. Ignoring \(i\) (safety knowledge) creates a dysfunctional system where mass (\(m\)) dominates reality (\(r\)), leading to disorder (ΔS > 0). Conversely, integrating guidelines (\(i\)) with infrastructure (\(m\)) ensures alignment with operational reality (\(r\)), fostering negentropy (J > 0) and minimizing risks.  

*Policy Takeaway:*  

- *Mandate adherence to ISGOTT/SIGTTO* (↑\(i\)) through training and audits.  

- *Regularly update infrastructure* (\(m\)) to reflect evolving guidelines and risks (\(r\)).  

- *Simulate reality* (e.g., drills, risk assessments) to test the equilibrium \((m + i) \leq r\).  

Failure to read and apply these guidelines is equivalent to removing the "brain" (\(i\)) from the system, leaving only its "body" (\(m\)) to collide catastrophically with reality (\(r\)). 

End of an Era - Dangote Refinery

 

Let’s face it earlier rather than too late. After more than 50 years of supplying petroleum products such as diesel, gasoline or jet fuel, a colonial, profitable business model will come to an end. In 2009 I wrote the thriller Probo Koala –

published in English under the title Toxic Tanker. I wrote this story because I was working as a loss control marine superintendent in West Africa responsible for the supervision of the delivery and discharge of these products, which I knew to be of a disputable quality.
In the book the protagonist was asked to hide or replace the original loading port documents, such as the measurement and quality testing report, which were manipulated. The only reason this business model, on which an entire logistics chain – supply, storage, and shipping – depended, could last this long, was because of intertwined interests between local buyers and international trading firms.
Low grade quality petroleum products were imported in to African countries because there was money to be made. A total disregard of the societal consequences could be observed.
Aliko Dangote, a Nigerian businessman, understood the petroleum trade model very well. He invested billions of dollars to build a local refinery in Nigeria. He wanted to supply Africa with on-spec, high quality fuels to boost their economies while halting the dependence on foreign, mediocre petroleum products.
But when one ruffles one’s feathers, opposition stands up. Vested interests in African politics interfered by limiting the local Nigerian crude supply, so the refinery had to purchase more expensive crude oil from overseas. NNPC, the National Nigerian Petroleum Corporation, run by politicians with vested interests, understood that business as usual was becoming impossible and together with their international trading partners attempted to slow down Dangote’s production capacity. No one likes to lose money.
But let’s look at this situation from a different perspective: sustainability. We should ask these questions: was the old way of doing business sustainable or harmful? Is the Dangote’s alternative sustainable and non-harmful? This is not about money alone, but about doing the right thing for a change. Investing and dealing with Africa is not about colonialism anymore. Africa woke up and, because of enormous investments from China and Russia, they realise that their vast resources should first serve Africans and not just line the pockets of Modernity (‘neo colonialism’).
I believe a different, mutually beneficial business model is possible. Negative interdependent business models mean gains for a few but at the cost of others. There needs to be a sustainable way out. Unethical trading is obsolete, because it can’t function forever. A new, exciting opportunity arises. Traders can still compete with this refinery if they can supply high quality products for a lower price, but that will be very difficult as freight needs to added to ship the fuels. Let’s support Africa, cooperate with them as true traders, storage and shipping companies who don’t take any longer what they don’t deserve.
 

Radical Uncertainty

 

Perhaps you will agree that doing business in a society which is being disturbed by geopolitical conflict is not easy. When circumstances, rules, regulations can change overnight or geographical shifts are probable, long term commitment to or investments in alternative energy sources may be unwise. When you are following my columns, you will understand that I always ask Aristotle’s question: ‘seek knowledge of cause’. Uncertainty in information theory is also understood as the ‘information we don’t have’. Basing investments on information we don’t have causes uncertainty. At this moment I am observing that long term commitment into development of the Hydrogen bubble (I believe that would be the correct nomenclature) are gradually decreasing. An hydrogen hub connecting Rotterdam with the German Ruhr Industrial Area has been postponed.  Automakers don’t invest fully in cars running on hydrogen and already are rethinking investing in electrical vehicles, because of uncertainty about the availability of rare earth mineral resources and their costs, including so called ‘externalities’. Externalities are costs to society, the environment or to life that usually are not included in prices for products or services. If that were the case most things we’d take for granted would cost a lot more. Uncertainty means the inability to know everything fully. It is a fundamental property of complex systems (our industries, society, our planet or environment). Separating our industries from other ones is impossible because they are always interconnected and due to their interdependency, complex. One person in a government, may directly influence decisions we have to take. One incident in the shipping industry directly correlates to safety precautions in international ports. One oil spill in Alaska, directly impacts the entire world. A large number of unknowable elements directly affect our industries. A question to answer would be: can we control our industries ourselves, and if yes, how are we tackling radical uncertainty? The answer is; we can’t control uncertainty nor complex systems, but we can ‘steer’ them by using feedback. Based on Stafford Beer’s Viable Systems Theory and Ross Ashby’s law of requisite variety, we can build and maintain maximum resilience by building variety in our systems; this means to develop awareness, knowledge and skills and add tools such as PPE’s, gas detectors, alarm systems etc. These are called ‘attenuators’ or dampers of risks. Top down managed industries are often not aware of cybernetical tools by which maximum viability is feasible. Managers I spoke to do not have the requisite variety they could have and rely on their operators and other staff who they believe they ought to know. But, then I will ask: ‘Are you sure that your people are doing the  right things or the wrong things right?’ ‘Can you be certain that you have built enough variety in your system to absorb outside variety (risk)?’ I tested this during several training sessions I performed world-wide and came to the conclusion that maximum variety has not yet been understood as the ultimate radical uncertainty containment tool available. Cybernetics is the science of viability. I can teach you.

A Crisis of Perception

 

A recent book by Peter Oborne titled The Assault on Truth (2021) describes the cognitive failures of Boris Johnson and Donald Trump, who believe that lying gets them ahead: “Johnson was 23 when he was first sacked for lying”. This book features a listing of events, talks, political turmoil and societal effects caused by information deficit, which demonstrates that Fritjof Capra’s observation of a crisis of perception is correct. This insight is therefore of crucial importance as it offers an unusual view on the certainty by information and the uncertainty by disinformation which can be achieved by man if he or she is open to learn. 

The Performance Probability Pattern of disinformation (lying, deceit) is negative because the performance of any system that seeks less information rather than ‘optimal’ can’t function fully. Entropy (disorder) can also be observed as the information we don’t like to have. This is called negative interdependence, which means that a goal can only be achieved if others can’t. In other words: I can become rich because you can’t (you pay for it). Goals that are planned that would depend on enforcement, either by suppression of information or false information, can’t be achieved due to an energy-information-matter weakness (deficit) rendering the work needed to achieve that goal insufficient.

Manipulation in any form of information to achieve an ulteriorly motivated goal ends in chaos i.e., the inability of social governance, hence the status of our planetary society. This is unnecessary and can be re-designed by changing the general perception that lying is creative and constructive, because it is the exact opposite. Lying is allowed only when personal survival in life-threatening situations is at hand. Because the human mind is either unwilling or unable to see and understand this, society is in a state of unconsciously enforced ‘public entropy’ which can be understood as an accelerating, deteriorating disorder.

Sounds familiar? The trouble is that I can write these lines, but few are willing to change their minds, because their perception, or observation is driven by the need to jump on the bandwagon before someone else does. I just returned from the FETSA conference at StocExpo in Rotterdam and observed several speakers who jumped on the bandwagon of hydrogen, net zero and ammonia, because an investment trend is developing in that direction. But my question is: do we know enough about these risky elements and products? Have we truly studied their potential impact on life, the environment and social cohesion for the long term?

But the most important question to ask is: will the race towards net zero allow and use optimal information or is there a real risk of becoming a path-dependent rat race which has to enforced by those with vested interests? Is it the goal first to make money or to serve society with an abundant and clean form of sustainable energy? If these questions can’t be answered honestly, we have to be aware that entropy laws of physics can’t be broken nor escaped. An information deficit paradox will be the result: the act of lying to achieve a goal already consumes the energy which would have been needed to achieve it.

 

This is the latest in a monthly series of articles by Arend van Campen, founder of TankTerminalTraining, who can be contacted at arendvc@tankterminaltraining.com. More information on the company’s activities can be found at www.tankterminaltraining.com.

Tank Terminals Sustainability: can information theory help us reach our goals?

 

The question is no longer; is it sustainable? But; how can we ensure non harmful functionality?

StocExpo is back in 2023 with two separate conference streams, one exploring big picture tank storage, and the other on health & safety and the practicalities of terminal operations.

On day two of the Terminal Operations and Safety conference stream, Arend Van Campen, founder of the Tank Storage Sustainability Initiative and Tank Terminal Training, will talk on how tank terminals can realistically minimise their social and environmental impact using information theory.

Here’s a taster…

It’s incredibly hard for the tank storage sector to minimise its impact on the environment in a significant and wholesale way. There are different levels of regulation, infrastructure, and desire to tackle the environmental impact of tank terminals country to country.  But even on an individual level, sustainability represents a huge challenge to terminal operators.

This is partly because most individuals understand sustainability in a very shallow way. We want more green technology, we want to reach the slightly abstract goal of Net Zero, but predicting all the knock on effects and consequences down the line is beyond most of us. 

The fact of the matter is sustainability is an extremely complex goal with lots of moving parts. Small tweaks to complex systems can have a colossal and almost unpredictable impact, that impact can be positive, but it is just as likely to be negative if done without an eye on the bigger picture.

Tank terminal operators need to therefore conceptualise sustainability in terms of information theory. Information theory is the study of the quantification, communication and storage of information. It has been instrumental in NASA’s Voyager mission, the creation of the internet, and the viability of mobile phones. Similarly, information theory can have a profound impact on tank terminal sustainability.

With an information theory-led approach, tank terminal sustainability becomes far easier to understand and measure, and therefore far easier to manage and improve.

At StocExpo 2023, I’ll explain how information theory points towards a new approach to technology, seeking non-harmful functionality over simply reducing the impact of normal tank terminal processes.

With this new approach, it becomes much easier to say what is actually achievable in terms of sustainability, and also produce a roadmap to achieve it. I simply apply the two laws of thermodynamics to test functionality within the limitations of reality (Realimiteit) a.k.a. the natural boundaries of and for functionality which can only be ‘steered’ and ‘navigated’ with information. Our reality no longer consists of only matter and energy, but also of information.

World-leading experts from a variety of fields will join Arend in speaking at StocExpo in Rotterdam this March. The event will also host hundreds of industry-leading organisations from across the world, many of whom will be launching new technologies and products or announcing company updates to the international audience.

 

I will tell you more about the natural and scientific criteria for non harmful functionality of all man-made systems.

 

Is information the primary substance in the Universe?

Information is a word that has never been easy to pin down. In its most familiar sense, information today is news, intelligence, facts and ideas that are needed and passed on as knowledge. But a more active and constructive meaning as something that gives a certain shape or character to matter, or to mind; a force that shapes behaviour, trains, instructs, inspires and guides. Information gives form to the formless, DNA codes are information and form human thought patterns. In this way, information spans the disparate fields of space computing, classical physics, molecular biology and human communication, the evolution of language and the evolution of man. Nature can no longer be seen as matter and energy, but must be interpreted as matter, energy and information. (Campbell, Jeremy, 1982)

The universe is a physical system that contains bits of information. Every elementary particle carries bits of information. Electrons carrying information interact in a systematic way to perform a quantum logic operation. A computer and our mobile phones work like the universe because they are part of the universe and to work they must obey the same physical laws. Computers and the universe are information processors. Quantum computing is currently possible because of information, the universe already works this way. (Lloyd, Seth, 2016) 

Quantum information processing analyses the universe in terms of information: the universe consists not only of photons, electrons, neutrinos and quarks, but also of quantum bits or qubits. Professor Lloyd says that the universe is a gigantic computer, which processes information in quantum bits (qubits). Cosmologist Paul Davies says: “Instead of seeing matter as the primary substance of the universe, we think that information is the primary substance of the universe.” (Davies, Paul, 2020)

The universe, a computer, the human body, the environment, a shipping or tank storage company; all living systems are information carriers, receptors and/or transmitters dependent on communication. The information they carry can be understood as meaning, observed and grasped by the human consciousness and processed by its brain. Without the human ability to interpret information and meaning, the usefulness (functionality) of bits of information could not have been observed.

The first entry point of information is the human observation by subconscious and conscious perception ability. Therefore it is of crucial importance how man interprets the information, because what it means to him or her will ‘in-form i.e. give form’ to one’s lived reality. A false perception by misunderstanding or deliberately invoked by lies or propaganda causes man to make choices that may be or become harmful to life, the environment and social cohesion.

For our bulk storage and transport industries, learning about this exciting theory has proven to be very useful. All you have to do is to measure the available quantity of quality in your organisation and start using all of it. This will mitigate risk and improve HSEQ and operational excellence. The research is ongoing. If you want to learn more please visit www.sustenance4all.com.

This is the latest in a monthly series of articles by Arend van Campen, founder of TankTerminalTraining, who can be contacted at arendvc@tankterminaltraining.com. More information on the company’s activities can be found at www.tankterminaltraining.com.