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Posts uit 2024 tonen

Radical Uncertainty

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  Perhaps you will agree that doing business in a society which is being disturbed by geopolitical conflict is not easy. When circumstances, rules, regulations can change overnight or geographical shifts are probable, long term commitment to or investments in alternative energy sources may be unwise. When you are following my columns, you will understand that I always ask Aristotle’s question: ‘seek knowledge of cause’. Uncertainty in information theory is also understood as the ‘information we don’t have’. Basing investments on information we don’t have causes uncertainty. At this moment I am observing that long term commitment into development of the Hydrogen bubble (I believe that would be the correct nomenclature) are gradually decreasing. An hydrogen hub connecting Rotterdam with the German Ruhr Industrial Area has been postponed.   Automakers don’t invest fully in cars running on hydrogen and already are rethinking investing in electrical vehicles, because of uncertainty...

A Crisis of Perception

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  A recent book by Peter Oborne titled The Assault on Truth (2021) describes the cognitive failures of Boris Johnson and Donald Trump, who believe that lying gets them ahead: “Johnson was 23 when he was first sacked for lying”. This book features a listing of events, talks, political turmoil and societal effects caused by information deficit, which demonstrates that Fritjof Capra’s observation of a crisis of perception is correct. This insight is therefore of crucial importance as it offers an unusual view on the certainty by information and the uncertainty by disinformation which can be achieved by man if he or she is open to learn.   The Performance Probability Pattern of disinformation (lying, deceit) is negative because the performance of any system that seeks less information rather than ‘optimal’ can’t function fully. Entropy (disorder) can also be observed as the information we don’t like to have. This is called negative interdependence, which means that a goal can...